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Ajax vs Heerenveen

Eredivisie • Sunday, August 16, 2026 • 16:45

AI Prediction

Home Win

Odds TBA • Stake 1u

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Match Statistical Context

Ajax vs Heerenveen Pre-Match Data

Ajax enter this Eredivisie fixture ranked 5 with 56 points from 34 matches, while Heerenveen sit 8 with 51 points. Ajax hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Ajax carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Ajax have scored 62 and conceded 41, giving them a goal difference of 21. Heerenveen have scored 57 and conceded 53, with a goal difference of 4. On that measure, Ajax show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Ajax's form string is DLDWW, while Heerenveen's latest sequence is DLWWL. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 2.29 for Ajax and 0.88 for Heerenveen, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.17. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 62.66% and both teams to score at 70.32%.

Confidence

68% Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

6.80 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

2.29 - 0.88 Ajax vs Heerenveen
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinAjax
61.34%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinHeerenveen
26.66%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
62.66%
BTTSBoth teams to score
70.32%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability0.00%
Model Probability%
Value Edge0.00%
Value RatingNONE
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Ajax win probability is 61.34%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Heerenveen win probability is 26.66%. Expected goals: Ajax 2.29, Heerenveen 0.88. Recent form: Ajax N/A (0 pts), Heerenveen N/A (0 pts).

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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