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Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

La Liga La Liga • Saturday, May 23, 2026 • 21:00

AI Prediction

Under 3.5

Odds @2.52 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence65%
Risk LevelMedium Risk
Kickoff21:00
Market Odds@2.52
Match Statistical Context

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Pre-Match Data

Alaves enter this La Liga fixture ranked 14 with 43 points from 38 matches, while Rayo Vallecano sit 8 with 50 points. Rayo Vallecano hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Rayo Vallecano carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Alaves have scored 44 and conceded 56, giving them a goal difference of -12. Rayo Vallecano have scored 41 and conceded 44, with a goal difference of -3. On that measure, Rayo Vallecano show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Alaves's form string is LWWDL, while Rayo Vallecano's latest sequence is WWDDW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Alaves an overall score of 71 compared with 70 for Rayo Vallecano. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 71 and 70. This gives Alaves the model-rating edge. PuntVault's.

Confidence

65%Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Medium RiskBankroll discipline required

AI Score

6.50Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.23 - 1.83Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinAlaves
32.94%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinRayo Vallecano
55.06%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
65.00%
BTTSBoth teams to score
62.00%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability39.68%
Model Probability%
Value Edge37.22%
Value RatingELITE
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

A traditional low-block battle. Both teams have achieved their seasonal survival goals. Expect a highly physical midfield contest with minimal risks taken in the final third.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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