CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
Europa League • Thursday, July 09, 2026 • 19:00
Match Overview
CSKA Sofia hold a modest edge at home, with the model backing Home or Draw at 66% and strong value at 1.78. The numbers suggest a competitive tie, but CSKA’s slightly higher win probability and xG support a cautious home-side angle.
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give CSKA Sofia an overall score of 70 compared with 69 for Derry City. The attacking ratings are 75 and 74, while form ratings stand at 70 and 69. This gives CSKA Sofia the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.79 for CSKA Sofia and 1.32 for Derry City, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.11. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 61.58% and both teams to score at 73.54%.
Confidence
66%Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.60Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.79 - 1.32CSKA Sofia vs Derry CityProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. CSKA Sofia win probability is 42.59%, draw probability is 22.00%, and Derry City win probability is 35.41%. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.79, Derry City 1.32. Recent form: CSKA Sofia N/A (0 pts), Derry City N/A (0 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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