CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
Europa League • Thursday, July 09, 2026 • 20:00
Match Overview
CSKA Sofia are marginally favoured, but the strongest angle is Home or Draw at 66% confidence. The numbers point to a competitive game with goals, while CSKA’s slight edge in win probability and expected goals supports the double chance selection.
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give CSKA Sofia an overall score of 70 compared with 69 for Derry City. The attacking ratings are 75 and 74, while form ratings stand at 70 and 69. This gives CSKA Sofia the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.86 for CSKA Sofia and 1.27 for Derry City, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.13. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 72.94% and both teams to score at 80.82%.
Confidence
66%Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.60Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.86 - 1.27CSKA Sofia vs Derry CityProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. CSKA Sofia win probability is 44.12%, draw probability is 22.00%, and Derry City win probability is 33.88%. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.86, Derry City 1.27. Recent form: CSKA Sofia WWLW (9 pts), Derry City LWDLW (7 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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