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CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Europa League • Thursday, July 30, 2026 • 20:00

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (31.25% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 57%
Risk Level Low Risk
Kickoff 20:00
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Pre-Match Data

Team-strength ratings give CSKA Sofia an overall score of 70 compared with 72 for Qarabag. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 70 and 72. This gives Qarabag the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.69 for CSKA Sofia and 1.41 for Qarabag, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.10. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 69.40% and both teams to score at 31.25%.

Confidence

57% Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Low Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

5.70 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.69 - 1.41 CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinCSKA Sofia
37.17%
DrawMatch draw
28.00%
Away WinQarabag
34.83%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
69.40%
BTTSBoth teams to score
31.25%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability31.25%
Model Probability%
Value Edge12.50%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 31.25%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=66, probability=31.25, confidence=57, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=watchlist.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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