Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Europa League • Thursday, July 16, 2026 • 19:00
Match Overview
Over 2.5 is strongly supported by the model, with high BTTS and combined xG pointing to a lively Europa League tie. The pricing at 1.60 still leaves a positive edge, though match control is not one-sided.
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Derry City an overall score of 70 compared with 71 for CSKA Sofia. The attacking ratings are 74 and 75, while form ratings stand at 70 and 71. This gives CSKA Sofia the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.65 for Derry City and 1.45 for CSKA Sofia, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.10. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 61.40% and both teams to score at 73.40%.
Confidence
63% Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.30 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.65 - 1.45 Derry City vs CSKA SofiaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Derry City win probability is 36.12%, draw probability is 28.00%, and CSKA Sofia win probability is 35.88%. Expected goals: Derry City 1.65, CSKA Sofia 1.45. Recent form: Derry City N/A (0 pts), CSKA Sofia N/A (0 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3More Europa League Predictions
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