Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Europa League • Thursday, July 16, 2026 • 19:30
Match Overview
CSKA Sofia hold the edge in a high-scoring setup, with away-or-draw supported by stronger form, slight ELO advantage and market probabilities. Goals look likely at both ends, but the main value remains on avoiding a Derry City win.
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Derry City an overall score of 69 compared with 70 for CSKA Sofia. The attacking ratings are 74 and 75, while form ratings stand at 69 and 70. This gives CSKA Sofia the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.48 for Derry City and 1.60 for CSKA Sofia, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.08. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 77.88% and both teams to score at 84.15%.
Confidence
80%High ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.60Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.48 - 1.60Derry City vs CSKA SofiaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, market probabilities and last-five head-to-head history. In the last 1 available meetings, Derry City recorded 0 win(s), CSKA Sofia recorded 1 win(s), and 0 match(es) ended level. Those meetings averaged 5.00 goals, with BTTS landing in 100.00% and over 2.5 goals landing in 100.00%. Derry City win probability is 35.24%, draw probability is 22.00%, and CSKA Sofia win probability is 42.76%. Expected goals: Derry City 1.48, CSKA Sofia 1.6. Recent form: Derry City LLWDL (4 pts), CSKA Sofia WWWL (9 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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