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Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

Conference League • Thursday, July 30, 2026 • 19:30

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (52.64% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 49%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 19:30
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka Pre-Match Data

Team-strength ratings give Derry City an overall score of 69 compared with 71 for HNK Rijeka. The attacking ratings are 74 and 75, while form ratings stand at 69 and 71. This gives HNK Rijeka the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.95 for Derry City and 2.07 for HNK Rijeka, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.02. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 67.96% and both teams to score at 52.64%.

Confidence

49% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

4.90 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

0.95 - 2.07 Derry City vs HNK Rijeka
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinDerry City
25.56%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinHNK Rijeka
62.44%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
67.96%
BTTSBoth teams to score
52.64%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability52.64%
Model Probability%
Value Edge13.44%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 52.64%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=70, probability=52.64, confidence=49, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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