Genoa vs Fiorentina
Serie A • Sunday, October 11, 2026 • 18:30
Genoa vs Fiorentina Pre-Match Data
Genoa enter this Serie A fixture ranked 16 with 41 points from 38 matches, while Fiorentina sit 15 with 42 points. Fiorentina hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Fiorentina carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Genoa have scored 41 and conceded 51, giving them a goal difference of -10. Fiorentina have scored 41 and conceded 50, with a goal difference of -9. On that measure, Fiorentina show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Genoa's form string is LLDDL, while Fiorentina's latest sequence is DWDLD. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Genoa an overall score of 69 compared with 71 for Fiorentina. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 69 and 71. This gives Fiorentina the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.38.
Confidence
63% Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.30 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.38 - 1.69 Genoa vs FiorentinaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Genoa win probability is 34.57%, draw probability is 18.00%, and Fiorentina win probability is 47.43%. Expected goals: Genoa 1.38, Fiorentina 1.69. Recent form: Genoa N/A (0 pts), Fiorentina N/A (0 pts).
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