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Groningen vs Utrecht

Eredivisie • Sunday, August 09, 2026 • 14:30

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (60.13% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 51%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 14:30
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Groningen vs Utrecht Pre-Match Data

Groningen enter this Eredivisie fixture ranked 9 with 48 points from 34 matches, while Utrecht sit 6 with 53 points. Utrecht hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Utrecht carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Groningen have scored 49 and conceded 45, giving them a goal difference of 4. Utrecht have scored 55 and conceded 42, with a goal difference of 13. On that measure, Utrecht show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Groningen's form string is WWLLD, while Utrecht's latest sequence is WWWLW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.12 for Groningen and 1.92 for Utrecht, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.04. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 60.32% and both teams to score at 60.13%.

Confidence

51% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

5.10 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.12 - 1.92 Groningen vs Utrecht
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinGroningen
30.18%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinUtrecht
57.82%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
60.32%
BTTSBoth teams to score
60.13%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability60.13%
Model Probability%
Value Edge4.86%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 60.13%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=71, probability=60.13, confidence=51, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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