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Groningen vs Utrecht

Eredivisie • Sunday, August 09, 2026 • 14:30

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (54.59% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 49%
Risk Level Low Risk
Kickoff 14:30
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Groningen vs Utrecht Pre-Match Data

Groningen enter this Eredivisie fixture ranked 9 with 48 points from 34 matches, while Utrecht sit 6 with 53 points. Utrecht hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Utrecht carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Groningen have scored 49 and conceded 45, giving them a goal difference of 4. Utrecht have scored 55 and conceded 42, with a goal difference of 13. On that measure, Utrecht show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Groningen's form string is WWLLD, while Utrecht's latest sequence is WWWLW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Groningen an overall score of 63 compared with 66 for Utrecht. The attacking ratings are 65 and 67, while form ratings stand at 63 and 66. This gives Utrecht the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.78 for.

Confidence

49% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Low Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

4.90 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

0.78 - 2.22 Groningen vs Utrecht
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinGroningen
20.94%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinUtrecht
67.06%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
59.66%
BTTSBoth teams to score
54.59%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability54.59%
Model Probability%
Value Edge19.86%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 54.59%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=71, probability=54.59, confidence=49, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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