Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz
Champions League • Tuesday, July 28, 2026 • 20:45
Match Overview
Over 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the model, with high BTTS and balanced xG on both sides. Sturm Graz hold a slight edge, but the main angle is a lively, open match rather than a clear result call.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Heart Of Midlothian an overall score of 67 compared with 70 for Sturm Graz. The attacking ratings are 76 and 75, while form ratings stand at 67 and 70. This gives Sturm Graz the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.28 for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.78 for Sturm Graz, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.06. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 77.58% and both teams to score at 75.84%.
Confidence
84%High ConfidenceRisk Level
Low RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
8.20Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.28 - 1.78Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm GrazProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, market probabilities and last-five head-to-head history. In the last 1 available meetings, Heart Of Midlothian recorded 0 win(s), Sturm Graz recorded 1 win(s), and 0 match(es) ended level. Those meetings averaged 4.00 goals, with BTTS landing in 0.00% and over 2.5 goals landing in 100.00%. Heart Of Midlothian win probability is 31.93%, draw probability is 18.00%, and Sturm Graz win probability is 50.07%. Expected goals: Heart Of Midlothian 1.28, Sturm Graz 1.78. Recent form: Heart Of Midlothian WLWWL (9 pts), Sturm Graz WWWWW (15 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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