Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie • Sunday, September 06, 2026 • 14:30
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Pre-Match Data
Heerenveen enter this Eredivisie fixture ranked 8 with 51 points from 34 matches, while AZ Alkmaar sit 7 with 52 points. AZ Alkmaar hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and AZ Alkmaar carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Heerenveen have scored 57 and conceded 53, giving them a goal difference of 4. AZ Alkmaar have scored 58 and conceded 51, with a goal difference of 7. On that measure, AZ Alkmaar show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Heerenveen's form string is DLWWL, while AZ Alkmaar's latest sequence is DDDDW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.60 for Heerenveen and 1.49 for AZ Alkmaar, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.09. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 61.22% and both teams to score at 73.26%.
Confidence
63% Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.30 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.60 - 1.49 Heerenveen vs AZ AlkmaarProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Heerenveen win probability is 35.11%, draw probability is 28.00%, and AZ Alkmaar win probability is 36.89%. Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.6, AZ Alkmaar 1.49. Recent form: Heerenveen N/A (0 pts), AZ Alkmaar N/A (0 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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