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Heerenveen vs Twente

Eredivisie • Sunday, August 09, 2026 • 16:45

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (41.21% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 46%
Risk Level Low Risk
Kickoff 16:45
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Heerenveen vs Twente Pre-Match Data

Heerenveen enter this Eredivisie fixture ranked 8 with 51 points from 34 matches, while Twente sit 4 with 58 points. Twente hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Twente carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Heerenveen have scored 57 and conceded 53, giving them a goal difference of 4. Twente have scored 59 and conceded 40, with a goal difference of 19. On that measure, Twente show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Heerenveen's form string is DLWWL, while Twente's latest sequence is LWDDW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Heerenveen an overall score of 71 compared with 69 for Twente. The attacking ratings are 77 and 78, while form ratings stand at 71 and 69. This gives Heerenveen the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.09 for.

Confidence

46% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Low Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

4.60 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.09 - 1.95 Heerenveen vs Twente
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinHeerenveen
29.24%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinTwente
58.76%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
74.27%
BTTSBoth teams to score
41.21%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability41.21%
Model Probability%
Value Edge24.82%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 41.21%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=67, probability=41.21, confidence=46, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=watchlist.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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