Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Premier League • Saturday, October 17, 2026 • 16:00
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Pre-Match Data
Newcastle enter this Premier League fixture ranked 12 with 49 points from 38 matches, while Aston Villa sit 4 with 65 points. Aston Villa hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Aston Villa carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Newcastle have scored 53 and conceded 55, giving them a goal difference of -2. Aston Villa have scored 56 and conceded 49, with a goal difference of 7. On that measure, Aston Villa show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Newcastle's form string is LWDWL, while Aston Villa's latest sequence is WWDLL. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Newcastle an overall score of 70 compared with 71 for Aston Villa. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 70 and 71. This gives Aston Villa the model-rating edge..
Confidence
76% High ConfidenceRisk Level
Low Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.60 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
0.78 - 2.27 Newcastle vs Aston VillaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Newcastle win probability is 20.64%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Aston Villa win probability is 67.36%. Expected goals: Newcastle 0.78, Aston Villa 2.27. Recent form: Newcastle N/A (0 pts), Aston Villa N/A (0 pts).
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