Parma vs Genoa
Serie A • Sunday, September 20, 2026 • 18:30
Parma vs Genoa Pre-Match Data
Parma enter this Serie A fixture ranked 13 with 45 points from 38 matches, while Genoa sit 16 with 41 points. Parma hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Parma carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Parma have scored 28 and conceded 46, giving them a goal difference of -18. Genoa have scored 41 and conceded 51, with a goal difference of -10. On that measure, Genoa show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Parma's form string is WLLLW, while Genoa's latest sequence is LLDDL. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Parma an overall score of 70 compared with 69 for Genoa. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 70 and 69. This gives Parma the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 2.04.
Confidence
64% Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
6.40 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
2.04 - 1.10 Parma vs GenoaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Parma win probability is 54.82%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Genoa win probability is 33.18%. Expected goals: Parma 2.04, Genoa 1.1. Recent form: Parma N/A (0 pts), Genoa N/A (0 pts).
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