Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia
Europa League • Thursday, July 23, 2026 • 18:00
Match Overview
Over 2.5 is the preferred angle, supported by strong model probability, solid xG, and elite value metrics despite a modestly competitive matchup.
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Qarabag an overall score of 71 compared with 70 for CSKA Sofia. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 71 and 70. This gives Qarabag the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.59 for Qarabag and 1.50 for CSKA Sofia, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.09. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 72.22% and both teams to score at 76.26%.
Confidence
74%Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Low RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.60Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.59 - 1.50Qarabag vs CSKA SofiaProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, market probabilities and last-five head-to-head history. In the last 2 available meetings, Qarabag recorded 2 win(s), CSKA Sofia recorded 0 win(s), and 0 match(es) ended level. Those meetings averaged 1.00 goals, with BTTS landing in 0.00% and over 2.5 goals landing in 0.00%. Qarabag win probability is 34.98%, draw probability is 28.00%, and CSKA Sofia win probability is 37.02%. Expected goals: Qarabag 1.59, CSKA Sofia 1.5. Recent form: Qarabag WWLL (6 pts), CSKA Sofia DWWWW (13 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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