Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian
Champions League • Tuesday, July 21, 2026 • 20:30
Match Overview
Model data points to a strong goals angle, with Over 2.5 rated low risk and elite value. Both teams carry credible scoring profiles, while BTTS probability is also high. The match looks more open than the market price suggests.
Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Sturm Graz an overall score of 70 compared with 67 for Heart Of Midlothian. The attacking ratings are 75 and 76, while form ratings stand at 70 and 67. This gives Sturm Graz the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.66 for Sturm Graz and 1.44 for Heart Of Midlothian, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.10. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 72.40% and both teams to score at 83.40%.
Confidence
74%Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.40Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.66 - 1.44Sturm Graz vs Heart Of MidlothianProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Sturm Graz win probability is 36.41%, draw probability is 28.00%, and Heart Of Midlothian win probability is 35.59%. Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.66, Heart Of Midlothian 1.44. Recent form: Sturm Graz WWWDL (10 pts), Heart Of Midlothian WWLLW (9 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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