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Toulouse vs Lille

Ligue 1 • Saturday, September 05, 2026 • 17:00

AI Prediction

Away Win

Odds TBA • Stake 1u

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Match Statistical Context

Toulouse vs Lille Pre-Match Data

Toulouse enter this Ligue 1 fixture ranked 10 with 44 points from 33 matches, while Lille sit 3 with 61 points. Lille hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Lille carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Toulouse have scored 47 and conceded 46, giving them a goal difference of 1. Lille have scored 52 and conceded 37, with a goal difference of 15. On that measure, Lille show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Toulouse's form string is WWDLL, while Lille's latest sequence is LWDWD. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Toulouse an overall score of 75 compared with 69 for Lille. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 75 and 69. This gives Toulouse the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.78.

Confidence

76% High Confidence

Risk Level

Low Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

7.60 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

0.78 - 2.26 Toulouse vs Lille
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinToulouse
20.72%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinLille
67.28%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
60.32%
BTTSBoth teams to score
60.92%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability0.00%
Model Probability%
Value Edge0.00%
Value RatingNONE
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Toulouse win probability is 20.72%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Lille win probability is 67.28%. Expected goals: Toulouse 0.78, Lille 2.26. Recent form: Toulouse N/A (0 pts), Lille N/A (0 pts).

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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