Toulouse vs Lille
Ligue 1 • Saturday, September 05, 2026 • 17:00
Toulouse vs Lille Pre-Match Data
Toulouse enter this Ligue 1 fixture ranked 10 with 44 points from 33 matches, while Lille sit 3 with 61 points. Lille hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Lille carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Toulouse have scored 47 and conceded 46, giving them a goal difference of 1. Lille have scored 52 and conceded 37, with a goal difference of 15. On that measure, Lille show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Toulouse's form string is WWDLL, while Lille's latest sequence is LWDWD. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Toulouse an overall score of 75 compared with 69 for Lille. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 75 and 69. This gives Toulouse the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.78.
Confidence
76% High ConfidenceRisk Level
Low Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.60 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
0.78 - 2.26 Toulouse vs LilleProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Toulouse win probability is 20.72%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Lille win probability is 67.28%. Expected goals: Toulouse 0.78, Lille 2.26. Recent form: Toulouse N/A (0 pts), Lille N/A (0 pts).
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