Toulouse vs Lyon
Ligue 1 • Saturday, August 22, 2026 • 17:00
Toulouse vs Lyon Pre-Match Data
Toulouse enter this Ligue 1 fixture ranked 10 with 44 points from 33 matches, while Lyon sit 4 with 60 points. Lyon hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Lyon carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Toulouse have scored 47 and conceded 46, giving them a goal difference of 1. Lyon have scored 53 and conceded 40, with a goal difference of 13. On that measure, Lyon show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Toulouse's form string is WWDLL, while Lyon's latest sequence is LLWWW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Toulouse an overall score of 75 compared with 69 for Lyon. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 75 and 69. This gives Toulouse the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.82.
Confidence
74% Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Medium Risk Bankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.40 Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
0.82 - 2.19 Toulouse vs LyonProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Toulouse win probability is 21.96%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Lyon win probability is 66.04%. Expected goals: Toulouse 0.82, Lyon 2.19. Recent form: Toulouse N/A (0 pts), Lyon N/A (0 pts).
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