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Toulouse vs Lyon

Ligue 1 • Saturday, August 22, 2026 • 17:00

AI Prediction

Away Win

Odds TBA • Stake 1u

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Match Statistical Context

Toulouse vs Lyon Pre-Match Data

Toulouse enter this Ligue 1 fixture ranked 10 with 44 points from 33 matches, while Lyon sit 4 with 60 points. Lyon hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Lyon carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Toulouse have scored 47 and conceded 46, giving them a goal difference of 1. Lyon have scored 53 and conceded 40, with a goal difference of 13. On that measure, Lyon show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Toulouse's form string is WWDLL, while Lyon's latest sequence is LLWWW. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Toulouse an overall score of 75 compared with 69 for Lyon. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 75 and 69. This gives Toulouse the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 0.82.

Confidence

74% Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

7.40 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

0.82 - 2.19 Toulouse vs Lyon
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinToulouse
21.96%
DrawMatch draw
12.00%
Away WinLyon
66.04%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
59.78%
BTTSBoth teams to score
61.48%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability0.00%
Model Probability%
Value Edge0.00%
Value RatingNONE
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, probability balance and expected goals for this fixture. No strong recent head-to-head sample was available, so the model weighted FIFA ranking, team strength, form indicators and goal expectation more heavily. Toulouse win probability is 21.96%, draw probability is 12.00%, and Lyon win probability is 66.04%. Expected goals: Toulouse 0.82, Lyon 2.19. Recent form: Toulouse N/A (0 pts), Lyon N/A (0 pts).

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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