Vestri vs Qarabag
Europa League • Thursday, July 16, 2026 • 22:00
Match Overview
Over 2.5 looks well supported by the model, with strong goal probabilities, balanced xG, and a high BTTS rate. Qarabag hold a slight edge overall, but the main angle is goals rather than match result.
Vestri vs Qarabag Pre-Match Data
Team-strength ratings give Vestri an overall score of 67 compared with 71 for Qarabag. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 67 and 71. This gives Qarabag the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.53 for Vestri and 1.55 for Qarabag, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.08. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 74.88% and both teams to score at 76.12%.
Confidence
74%Medium ConfidenceRisk Level
Low RiskBankroll discipline requiredAI Score
7.90Vault AI ratingPredicted Score
1.53 - 1.55Vestri vs QarabagProbability Breakdown
Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.
Value Analysis
Match Insight
PuntVault AI analysed team strength, ELO rating, last-five team form, goal trends, market probabilities and last-five head-to-head history. In the last 1 available meetings, Vestri recorded 0 win(s), Qarabag recorded 1 win(s), and 0 match(es) ended level. Those meetings averaged 3.00 goals, with BTTS landing in 0.00% and over 2.5 goals landing in 100.00%. Vestri win probability is 33.68%, draw probability is 28.00%, and Qarabag win probability is 38.32%. Expected goals: Vestri 1.53, Qarabag 1.55. Recent form: Vestri LLDDW (5 pts), Qarabag WLLW (6 pts).
Model Version: Vault AI Model v3Join The PuntVault Football Community
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