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Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

Champions League • Tuesday, August 04, 2026 • 18:00

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (77.79% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 55%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 18:00
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Pre-Match Data

Team-strength ratings give Ararat-Armenia an overall score of 70 compared with 70 for Celje. The attacking ratings are 71 and 71, while form ratings stand at 70 and 70. This gives neither team the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.91 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.22 for Celje, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.13. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 65.94% and both teams to score at 77.79%.

Confidence

55% Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

5.50 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.91 - 1.22 Ararat-Armenia vs Celje
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinArarat-Armenia
47.80%
DrawMatch draw
18.00%
Away WinCelje
34.20%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
65.94%
BTTSBoth teams to score
77.79%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability77.79%
Model Probability%
Value Edge20.69%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 77.79%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=78, probability=77.79, confidence=55, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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