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Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

Champions League • Wednesday, August 05, 2026 • 20:00

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (80.98% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 73%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 20:00
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Pre-Match Data

Team-strength ratings give Fenerbahçe an overall score of 71 compared with 72 for Sturm Graz. The attacking ratings are 75 and 75, while form ratings stand at 71 and 72. This gives Sturm Graz the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.61 for Fenerbahçe and 1.49 for Sturm Graz, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.10. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 67.69% and both teams to score at 80.98%.

Confidence

73% Medium Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

7.30 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.61 - 1.49 Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinFenerbahçe
35.27%
DrawMatch draw
28.00%
Away WinSturm Graz
36.73%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
67.69%
BTTSBoth teams to score
80.98%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability80.98%
Model Probability%
Value Edge15.75%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 80.98%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=82, probability=80.98, confidence=73, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=strong.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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