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Guingamp vs Boulogne

Ligue 2 • Friday, August 14, 2026 • 20:45

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (57.43% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 50%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 20:45
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Guingamp vs Boulogne Pre-Match Data

Guingamp enter this Ligue 2 fixture ranked 11 with 40 points from 34 matches, while Boulogne sit 15 with 36 points. Guingamp hold the stronger league-position indicator before kickoff, and Guingamp carry the points advantage in the current table. The goal profile also creates a different statistical picture for this match. Guingamp have scored 42 and conceded 49, giving them a goal difference of -7. Boulogne have scored 34 and conceded 49, with a goal difference of -15. On that measure, Guingamp show the cleaner current-season balance. Recent form adds another useful layer: Guingamp's form string is LLLLD, while Boulogne's latest sequence is LLLLD. This helps separate league-table strength from short-term momentum. Team-strength ratings give Guingamp an overall score of 60 compared with 70 for Boulogne. The attacking ratings are 60 and 72, while form ratings stand at 60 and 70. This gives Boulogne the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.52.

Confidence

50% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

5.00 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.52 - 1.57 Guingamp vs Boulogne
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinGuingamp
33.34%
DrawMatch draw
28.00%
Away WinBoulogne
38.66%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
52.22%
BTTSBoth teams to score
57.43%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability57.43%
Model Probability%
Value Edge15.82%
Value Rating
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 57.43%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=71, probability=57.43, confidence=50, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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