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Vardar Skopje vs Riga

Conference League • Thursday, July 23, 2026 • 19:00

AI Prediction

Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (57.54% probability)

Odds @1.78 • Stake 1u

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AI Confidence 50%
Risk Level Medium Risk
Kickoff 19:00
Market Odds @1.78
Match Statistical Context

Vardar Skopje vs Riga Pre-Match Data

Team-strength ratings give Vardar Skopje an overall score of 70 compared with 70 for Riga. The attacking ratings are 83 and 85, while form ratings stand at 70 and 70. This gives neither team the model-rating edge. PuntVault's pre-match model projects expected goals of 1.62 for Vardar Skopje and 1.48 for Riga, producing a combined goal expectation of 3.10. The model also rates over 2.5 goals at 69.40% and both teams to score at 57.54%.

Confidence

50% Low Confidence

Risk Level

Medium Risk Bankroll discipline required

AI Score

5.00 Vault AI rating

Predicted Score

1.62 - 1.48 Vardar Skopje vs Riga
AI Model

Probability Breakdown

Vault AI probability ratings for match outcome and goal markets.

Home WinVardar Skopje
35.57%
DrawMatch draw
28.00%
Away WinRiga
36.43%
Over 2.5 GoalsGoal market
69.40%
BTTSBoth teams to score
57.54%
Market Value

Value Analysis

Implied Probability56.18%
Model Probability%
Value Edge-6.18%
Value RatingNONE
AI Intelligence

Match Insight

XGBoost Yellow Cards Engine v1 predicts Over 3.5 Yellow Cards. Model probability: 57.54%. Quality gate: yellow_cards quality=71, probability=57.54, confidence=50, feature=1.00, profile=1.00, tier=standard.

Model Version: Vault AI Model v3
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